What’s Happening in the Toronto Market (November 2013)

I thought that you might be interested in the real estate performance in Toronto. This seems to be something that everyone wants to talk about.

Here’s the report which was just released:

"Tighter Market Conditions Drive Strong Price Growth"

TORONTO, December 4, 2013 – Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,391 residential sales through the TorontoMLS system in November, representing a 13.9 per cent increase over the sales result for November 2012. Over the same period, new listings on TorontoMLS were down by 4.4 per cent and month-end active listings were down by 12.1 per cent.

“Growth in sales was strong for most home types in the Greater Toronto Area. Sales growth was led by the single-detached market segment followed by condominium apartments. Together, singles and condos accounted for almost three-quarters of total GTA transactions,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.

“With National Housing Day having just passed, housing affordability is top of mind in the GTA and indeed nationally. Despite strong price growth and an uptick in borrowing costs  this year, monthly mortgage payments on the average priced home remain affordable for a  household earning the average GTA income,” continued Ms. Usher.

The average selling price for November 2013 TorontoMLS transactions was $538,881 – up by 11.3 per cent in comparison to the average of $484,208 reported for November 2012.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 5.7 per cent over the same period.

“Whether we consider the average TorontoMLS selling price or the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark, annual home price growth remained well-above the rate of inflation in November. This makes sense given the fact that competition between buyers increased last month. Transactions were up strongly year-over-year while the number of homes available for sale was down,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis."

Review and Comparison

Let's have a look at some of the numbers, for sales and average prices:

2013

January                  4,229           $482,080
February                5,613           $509,396
March                    7,538           $517,223
April                      9,535           $524,870
May                       9,946           $540,544
June                       8,822           $529,616
July                       8,369           $512,298
August                   7,394           $501,794
September             7,263           $533,232
October                 7,964           $539,415
November              6,391           $538,881


Year-to-Date total sales 83,064

2012

January        4,431           $462,701
February      6,809           $500,249
March          9,383           $500,892
April            10,021         $515,888
May             10,542         $514,464
June             9,129           $507,342
July             7,338           $475,523
August         6,249           $477,170
September   5,687           $501,326
October       6,713           $502,127    
November    5,613           $484,208      (81,915)
December    3,582           $477,756


Annual sales in 2012        85,497       

COMMENT

So, the question is “how’s the market going”. The Toronto Real Estate Board uses year over year statistics. TREB therefore concludes that there is an 11.3% increase. That’s true.

But, the trend is “down”. The prices in November were down from last month and down from the height of the market which was May of this year.

As I have noted previously, this is entirely predictable.

Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker
www.iSourceRealEstate.com